The mission of the Virginia Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) is to protect the public by providing comprehensive services that help prevent juvenile delinquency. To do this, the DJJ forms partnerships with families, schools, communities, law enforcement, and other agencies, while providing the opportunity for delinquent youth to develop into responsible and productive citizens.
Legislators, agency managers and others involved in allocating scarce funding resources wanted to be able to more accurately compare the effectiveness of alternative treatment programs in order to expand those that are most effective in treating youths with particular characteristics. Placing youth into ineffective programs can waste vast amounts of taxpayers' dollars, but the cost to the youth can be even higher. Placement into an ineffective program wastes a vital opportunity to intervene in a youth's life before it is too late. Decision-makers also needed accurate, long-term predictions of the number of offenders that would be entering treatment programs and correctional centers; in order to make long-term facility construction and renovation plans. Inaccurate forecasts could lead to dangerously over-crowded facilities, or tens of millions of dollars in unnecessary expenditures.
There are few institutions that have a greater long-term impact on society than the juvenile justice system. The difference between failure and success is measured not just in dollars and cents, but also in reducing the number of crime victims and helping young offenders avoid the tragedy of a lifetime of incarceration. With a mission this important, it is essential that the Virginia Department of Juvenile Justice evaluate its programs and facilities to ensure their effectiveness.
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Most government agencies face the challenges of meeting critical needs with limited resources. DJJ is relying on PASW Statistics to provide important data for informed decision making. With PASW Statistics, the DJJ can better meet its mission by identifying the most effective programs so that funding can be allocated more appropriately. Channeling youth into programs with proven effectiveness gives them a much better chance of leading normal, productive lives in mainstream society. At the same time, through more accurate forecasting, the DJJ can determine with a higher level of precision whether any new facilities will be needed to meet future juvenile justice needs.
The DJJ operates eight correctional centers and provides funding for a wide range of court service units, community programs, community facilities, and private providers. This wide array of programs and services ensures that DJJ management and analysts are constantly in the midst of evaluating the effectiveness of each of these institutions and programs at achieving the department's goals.
Because errors in the correctional center population projections can lead to either dangerous overcrowding or wasteful spending to build unnecessary facilities, it was essential that we improve our methodology.
Lynette Greenfield
Research and Evaluation Manager
Virginia Department of Juvenile Justice
Dr. Jill Gordon, assistant professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, used DJJ data and PASW Statistics to evaluate programming at Barrett Juvenile Correctional Center. Dr. Gordon's study measured the effectiveness of various treatment alternatives in reducing re-arrest, re-commitment, and substance use for youths with various characteristics. She measured the outcomes by following up over a one-year period with the youth's parole officers. Dr. Gordon created a model to determine the relationship between certain individual characteristics and the key program outcomes.
Likewise, DJJ's Research and Evaluation unit has used PASW Statistics to evaluate treatment options available within all eight of the department's institutions.
Beth Keeler, data coordinator for community programs, added that the software has helped the DJJ look at the characteristics of youth involved in community programs and begin to evaluate the outcomes of different types of programs and services. DJJ analysts use PASW Statistics' analytical techniques to determine population characteristics and to look at the effectiveness of different programs and treatment options. They use aggregation techniques to look at both funding and population characteristics across types of programs and services.
The analysts also use PASW Statistics software to generate time series analyses that provide far more accurate forecasts, reducing the danger of either overbuilding facilities or having inadequate resources to provide necessary services. "In the past, we used relatively simple statistical methods to track the success of programs and make long-term decisions such as building a new juvenile correction center," said Lynette Greenfield, research and evaluation manager for the DJJ. "Percentage change models were used to predict the number of juvenile offenses and placements in our facilities. Because errors in the correctional center population projections can lead to either dangerous overcrowding or wasteful spending to build unnecessary facilities, it was essential that we improve our methodology. Our current forecasting procedures take advantage of PASW Statistics' more advanced time series methods.
Greenfield said that the accuracy of forecasting at the DJJ has been substantially improved by using the more reliable time-series method of the PASW Forecasting software. Time-series forecasting is more accurate because it separates random variations in the trend from those that are more systematic. This approach provides large increases in accuracy over simple percentage increase models so it can be used to make projections over longer periods with higher levels of confidence.
"SPSS Inc. has increased statistical capabilities and provides us with information to make better management decisions. " said Susan Gholston, manager of state and local partnerships unit. "This information will help us determine which types of programs are most effective for youth with particular characteristics. In the long run, we'll be able to make the best use of our resources to encourage kids to become responsible adults rather than remaining in the criminal justice system."
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